If you search for “odds of reality”, Google will probably think you are looking for the probability of existence, the universe, fine-tuning, or the odds of being born.
Which is definitely an interesting topic… But that is not really what this site is about. We are not pretending to be cosmologists. We are not selling mysticism.
We are dealing with a much more practical problem: how people handle uncertainty before the outcome is known. Probability in decisions. Everyday decisions, whether we are talking about betting odds, markets, risk, or ordinary life.
“Thanks again, see you tomorrow at 8. I’m coming 100%. Take care. Goodbye!”
A completely ordinary sentence. Grammatically correct. Socially normal. Mathematically wrong.
Yes, I know. Imagine correcting someone in real life and saying, “Well, you can’t really say you are coming 100%.” Then you start listing absurd reasons: what if there is an earthquake, what if a nuclear war breaks out, what if you fall and break your leg, what if your car dies on the way?
You would sound ridiculous. Probably like a complete weirdo. And most people would stop inviting you anywhere.
But mathematically, that annoying weirdo would be right. Nothing is 100% certain. Nothing. And in the same way, almost nothing is truly 0%.
Some events are so unlikely that there may not be enough zeros to write after 0.0000000 before we finally place a 1 and a percent sign at the end. But still, that is not zero.
Nothing is 0%. Nothing is 100%. And at Odds of Reality, we are ready to die on that hill.
If this way of thinking makes sense to you, continue with the essays in Insights.